On the 21st March I wrote an article explaining how I’ve been taking a look at the importance of goals and they can be rated differently due to the game state and the outcome of the matches they are scored in. It would be helpful if you could read that one which would explain my methodology and show you the results and conclusions from the model. The link is here : http://www.esdfanalysis.com/goal-analysis/europes-important-goalscorer
What this model sets out to achieve is to further breakdown goals and assists which can be slightly misleading as standalone stats. Your striker may have 15 goals this season but to what extent do his goals matter if they are all scored late on in games when your team are already winning 4-0? By the same logic, when recruiting a player who has ten goals if they are all game winners that would provide some insight into how he performs when the game is on the line that may add to his value somewhat.
Gonzalo Higuain led the goal importance column at the time of writing but we’ll now take a look at attributing the same model to the assist column across the top 5 league’s in Europe to help us find out which player’s assists are the most important. So as with the previous article we’re only looking at the premier creators in each division so the the field is narrowed down to players with 7 assists at the time or writing. Here are the results:
As you can see Toni Kroos of Real Madrid runs away a worthy winner of the assist importance award. At the time of writing Toni Kroos has 10 assists this season so not only does he have the most assists in La Liga but the importance of those assists eclipses any player in Europe’s top 5 leagues.
Ladislav Krejci sits in second place with a remarkable average of 7 from 7 assists so to put it in more laymen’s terms each assist by Krejci equates to an importance of just under a winning goal assist every time he assists and that again makes Kroos’ output even more impressive.
Others worth mentioning in the assist leader in Europe – Kevin De Bruyne. The talented Belgian sits 10th in assist importance with an average of 5.4 which equates to more than an equaliser every time he assists which is a high standard considering he leads Europe in Assists at the time of writing.
Finally, Ousmane Dembele. The sole teenager on the list. At the time of writing he has 9 assists in his rookie season in the Bundesliga with Borussia Dortmund. For him to make the top 10 in importance value aswell gives a bit more value to those who rightly rate him so highly.
All stats correct at the time of writing.
Any thoughts, criticisms or compliments you can reach me @thespflradar